The Art of Forecasting

Read this book and wake up to the future.

How does an analyst forecast an organization’s success? Typically, they begin with a “SWOT” (Strength-Weakness-Opportunity-Threat) analysis, with a lot of focus on what the organization is doing to address the T.  

But if you don’t see a threat, or see it fully, you can’t address it fully either. One of the biggest risks in public affairs and in business is not so much the threat itself, but having a blind spot. And one solution to this can be found in the seemingly unlikeliest of places.  


When I tell my friends about novels I’m reading, they regularly tell me they can’t afford the time to read fiction. But I tell them they cannot afford not to.   

It’s not easy to anticipate the future. I’m certainly not very good at it. Take events from the last several years: The election of President Trump, the outbreak of COVID-19, the January 6th insurrection, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the unraveling of George Santos’s resume, the rise and fall of FTX, or even the sudden explosion of ChatGPT. I didn’t see all of that coming. Did you?

What about the future for one of The Instigator’s regular topics — climate change?